A year ago, when mostly bad news was coming from the front, Putin skipped his traditional PR show. Now the Kremlin ruler seems to be assuming that everything is going according to plan. He appears correspondingly self-assured.
In the period before February 24, 2022, they were clearly among the Russian President’s favorite pastimes: the press conferences lasting several hours at the end of the year, as well as the „Direct Wire“ once a year, a seemingly endless program that Putin used to ask selected questions from the population to answer. Last year, the now 71-year-old dictator decided against both formats: apparently the initial situation was simply too uncomfortable. In the fall, the Ukrainian army drove the Russian invaders out of the Kharkiv district and the city of Kherson; mobilization in Russia may also have contributed to the decision.
In December 2023, the world will look very different, at least in Putin’s eyes. The Ukrainian offensive operation has not led to great success, Western support for Kiev appears to be crumbling – and the Russian economy is in much better shape than predicted despite the sanctions, whose long-term effect is hardly in question. And so it was probably time to return to your own habits. At least almost: This time the formats of the press conference and the “direct line” were linked.
There were hardly any surprises in terms of content. There was Putin’s usual lesson on Ukrainian history, which again went back to the time of the October Revolution. But the Russian war against Ukraine was not the focus.
Of course, Putin can’t do anything about it
That was to be expected. Surveys – even if they should always be viewed with caution in Russia – show that Russians are currently primarily interested in social and economic issues. On the other hand, Putin had already put the war in the foreground when he announced his fifth candidacy for president a week ago. He did this while appearing with the son of a killed commander of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic, who is now himself the speaker of the Donetsk „parliament“ and a participant in the war. Today’s PR event was probably intended to be the start of Putin’s „election campaign“. Its central motto seems to be: It works.
Some of the theses that Putin emphasized were that the Russian economy has a secure cushion under it, unemployment is lower than ever and life expectancy is increasing. He also announced that he would tell the Putin of 2000 that he was on the right path – but should reconsider his naivety towards his Western partners at the time. Amid big words, he also answered a question about the massive rise in egg prices: The blame was on insignificant mistakes by the government and the Ministry of Agriculture that could be corrected, said Putin. Of course he can’t help it himself.
There was hardly any real new knowledge. Putin announced that there are reportedly 617,000 Russian soldiers deployed in Ukraine. Indirectly, he spoke out against the abortion ban that state propaganda had promoted in recent months, a concern of the Orthodox Church.
Critical questions to create the illusion of plurality
All of this served the purpose of showing citizens that things should continue as before and that the campaign against Ukraine can continue to be ignored by ordinary Russian consumers. Especially since, according to Putin, there is no need for a new wave of mobilization. Last year showed how much such promises are worth: the announcement of mobilization directly followed similar assurances that these were not necessary. In this regard, it was notable that Putin did not mention the issue of so-called demobilization. Relatives of men who were drafted in September 2022 have been protesting for weeks and months so that their husbands and sons can finally return home. This is anything but in sight for now.
Meanwhile, critical questions occasionally flickered on the screens behind Putin. Like this one: “Why does your reality diverge from our reality?” Something like this shouldn’t be overrated. It is quite possible that such questions were coordinated with the Kremlin for reasons of apparent plurality. According to information from the Russian-language BBC, this was the case with “Direct Wire” in 2017, also shortly before the elections. It is not to be expected that someone will lose their job because of this.
Putin clearly feels strong
Unlike a year ago, the Putin of December 2023 is self-confident – and believes that everything is going according to plan. When one of the Russian „war correspondents“ asks him about problems with the use of drones, the Russian president asks him to say that things have gotten better. Of course, the propagandist reacts immediately. “Now please sit down,” Putin continues. The Kremlin ruler does not even bring up the topic of possible negotiations with Ukraine prominently for tactical purposes, although he was happy to do so in the past – with the usual reference that it was Ukraine and its Western „curators“ who were blocking talks. Apparently Putin feels so strong that he doesn’t see such tactics as necessary.
Instead, the point is again that there will only be peace once the goals of the „special military operation“ are fulfilled – the „denazification“ and „demilitarization“ of Ukraine. In any case, Russians and Ukrainians are one people and Odessa is a Russian city – we already know that. Ukraine gets Western weapons virtually for free, but that is now coming to an end, even if Kiev will still get something.
Putin has increased his own military budget for 2024 by 70 percent compared to the previous year, and Russian budget planning shows that he is planning more years of war. He is sure that time is in his favor. He’s not entirely wrong. But the history of his regime also shows that it made most mistakes when it was too self-conscious. This was the case on February 24, 2022 and may happen again. Especially when the West finally recognizes the seriousness of the moment.